Arizona Fall weather outlook is bleak with high temps and low rainfall predicted into La Niña winter

Phoenix, Arizona: As Arizona heads into the fall of 2024, weather experts are forecasting significant climate shifts that will have major implications for the state.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions remain neutral, with equatorial sea surface temperatures varying across the Pacific Ocean. However, La Niña conditions are expected to develop during the September-November period, with a 66% chance of occurrence, increasing to nearly 70% as winter approaches. This change could have substantial impacts on Arizona’s weather patterns.

For Arizona and the broader Southwest, the seasonal outlook for September through November 2024 favors above-normal temperatures. The probability of hotter-than-average temperatures exceeds 60% for the region, contributing to ongoing drought conditions and placing additional strain on water resources. The state is already experiencing extreme heat this summer, and these projections indicate that relief may not be on the horizon as the fall season begins.

In terms of precipitation, the outlook is less promising. The forecast predicts below-normal rainfall for Arizona, particularly for the southern parts of the state, including southern New Mexico and western Texas. This reduction in rainfall could exacerbate drought conditions and limit water availability across the region. The La Niña conditions, known for bringing drier winters to the Southwest, suggest that Arizona could face a challenging winter with limited precipitation.

The developing La Niña could have broader implications beyond Arizona, potentially influencing weather patterns across the United States. However, the state’s proximity to the Pacific Ocean means it is particularly vulnerable to the effects of these oceanic changes. As Arizona prepares for another La Niña winter, residents and policymakers must brace for a season of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, with significant impacts on agriculture, water supply, and overall climate resilience.