Arizona Weather Update: More rain expected but heat won't shift

Phoenix, Arizona (Release): The monsoon ridge remains centered along the Arizona/New Mexico border in a weakened state with east/southeast steering flow and little change in moisture values. Expect continued storm/rain chances with the focus across higher terrain areas north/east of the Valley and southern Arizona later today and again on Thursday.

Moving ahead, the ridge is forecast to shift northwest across Arizona and into the lower Great Basin region through the upcoming weekend. The initial shift across Arizona should lead to warming temperatures with daily highs pushing back into the excessive heat range (112°F-116°F) Thursday through Saturday. One should also start to see an uptick in daily storm/rain chances late week as the ridge settles into Nevada promoting favorable northeast steering flow and subsequent “Rim to Valley” storm pattern.

For today plan on clear skies as afternoon highs climb into the 107°F-111°F range around the Valley with overnight lows settling into the mid to low 90s. Variable winds will generally remain in the 5-10mph range with localized gustier conditions possible this evening/overnight. Storm chances will remain focused across the higher terrain areas north and east of the Valley and across southern Arizona. It’s worth noting, a few light showers could move north into portions of the County overnight through Thursday morning bringing light rain.

Heading into tomorrow plan on early morning debris clouds and possibly some light showers as mentioned above. A warming trend will begin with daytime highs reaching the 110°F-113°F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally hover in the light category (5-10mph) with localized greater evening gusts.

Storm activity is again expected to remain favored across southern AZ and higher terrain areas north and east of the Valley, though with the help of outflow boundaries there could be some pop up activity across the lower deserts tomorrow night. The warming trend will kick into high gear Friday and Saturday with highs climbing towards the 115°F mark.