White House issues stark warning to 9 million Americans if 'Big Beautiful Bill' doesn't pass
Washington D.C.: The White House has released a study projecting that 8.2 to 9.2 million more Americans could lose health insurance if Congress fails to pass President Donald Trump’s proposed budget bill, warning of severe economic consequences.
The analysis, conducted by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, suggests that the U.S. uninsured rate could surge from 27 million in 2025 to nearly 36 million—approaching pre-Obamacare levels—if the legislation stalls amid an expected recession.
The memo, titled 'Health Insurance Opportunity Cost if 2025 Proposed Budget Reconciliation Bill Does Not Pass', warns that the expiration of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts in 2026, combined with economic shocks, could trigger a "moderate to severe recession".
Up to 6.5 million jobs could disappear, with 3.9 million workers losing employer-sponsored insurance. Individual insurance enrollment could plummet by 15%, leaving 3.3 million more uninsured. States scaling back expanded Medicaid programs could push 500,000 to one million low-income Americans off coverage.
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The report cautions that vulnerable groups—including gig workers, early retirees, and non-citizens—would be disproportionately affected, as many would no longer afford private insurance during an economic downturn.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is racing to pass the 1,116-page 'One Big Beautiful Act' before Memorial Day, despite internal GOP divisions. The bill includes $5 trillion in tax cuts, extending Trump’s 2017 policies permanently; new tax breaks, such as exemptions for overtime pay and tips; a $10,000 deduction for auto loan interest on U.S.−made cars, and a proposed "MAGA account" for children born during the second Trump term.
The White House acknowledges its projections assume "no policy countermeasures"—a scenario it calls unlikely, but plausible. Critics argue the estimates are politically motivated, while supporters insist the bill is necessary to prevent economic turmoil.
With Republicans holding a slim House majority, the bill’s fate remains uncertain. If it fails, the White House warns, the U.S. could face not only a recession but a dramatic rollback in healthcare access—reversing years of coverage gains under the Affordable Care Act.